Support for Arkansas Week provided by the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.

The Arkansas Times and Little Rock Public Radio.

And hello again, everyone, and thanks very much for being with us.

In a moment, the latest from Washington about Arkansas tariffs and taxes and layoffs and the possibility that some of the above may be reversed.

First, the guessing game that Arkansas farmers and ranchers are being compelled to play.

Normally, the weather and production costs would be the top of their list of concerns, and they're still on the list.

But the list is a bit longer this year.

Joining us now, farm economist Ryan Loy of the U.

A.

Agriculture Division.

Thanks very much for coming aboard.

What is at the top of that list?

It's a resurgence.

Absolutely.

And that's a very interesting question, Mr. Barnes, and thank you so much for having me.

And you mentioned weather and production costs, and that's been at the forefront.

And it's going to stay at the forefront of people's minds this year with a little bit of an addition this year with some uncertainty around some of our export markets due to the tariffs that it's kind of coming down the pike.

And when you look at that and you're looking at farmers in their operations and they've been price squeeze very drastically the last three years and this is just adding to that pile on situation.

And so when we're talking about tariffs, we're looking at that export market which our agricultural commodities mainly go to.

Right.

So without those, it's tough to have a market in, tough to get a better price for those commodities, which is what we've seen over this time, especially with the tariffs.

As an economist, Dr. Lloyd, what's is your list of concerns?

Yes, sir.

Does it coincide with the average farmer or ranchers list of concern?

What should be at the top of the list?

Absolutely.

Well, one, from your perspective.

Absolutely.

And I would say, yes, they are.

They're mainly in line right now with with what they expect, with what the issues are.

You know, we're talking low commodity prices, uncertainty in those export markets, whether issues and production costs all on top of that.

And so I would say that at the top of that list right now, we're still looking at production cost to be the most immediate and biggest price squeeze issue.

The tariff side is more of an uncertainty and we don't know what's going to happen, which scares markets, right.

And not just people, but, you know, words affect markets.

And so when you look at that and that uncertainty, we don't know where it's going to go, especially when it comes to the harvest time.

And so the most immediate is that production costs and a little bit longer term is the uncertainty of the tariffs.

All right.

Let's let's go back to nature.

What's the weather doing right now?

What's the outlook?

So right now.

Right.

I mean, they want to get out in those fields.

That's right.

That's right.

There's been a lot of field work being done, actually, which is good to see.

And there's kind of positives and benefits to this.

You know, Arkansas is extremely dry right now.

And so that lends itself very nicely to do field work and set up the fields.

And you've got everything ready to go, You've staged everything.

Now you just need some soil moisture, right?

And so that's what folks are waiting for now to look at to see the weather over this weekend and maybe next week to see because the optimal planning with the windows, especially for corn, soybeans and rice, is right in this time.

And so, again, if they get that little soil moisture, we can put it into the ground and get things underway.

So soy beans and rice being.

Yeah, that's right.

And right.

A big ticket.

Absolutely.

And corn is actually the one that's ahead.

Right now, as of a report this week, it's about 10% planted for the state.

And we're ahead of last year on corn.

Actually, that was at 4% at this time last year.

We're not talking about millions of dollars here, but billions and billions, Billions of bucks.

That's all, especially when we're talking about soybeans and rice, especially when we're talking about them.

And and it's very interesting you bring that up, because one of the things is, you know, when we're looking at the profitability and like you said, billions of dollars in this industry, you know, even with the billions of dollars, they are still having to pay such high prices for their production costs right now, that that economic assistance that's being released is a direct effect of that.

Yeah, In terms of the tariff business and the export market there, let's go back to the Carter years where the wheat embargo there was long term, there was obviously immediate damage, but there was long term damage.

That's right.

In terms of of other countries stepping in and grabbing up a portion of that market.

That's exactly right.

And that's exactly what we're seeing.

Are we are we in that situation?

Yes.

Could we be in that situation?

Are we we we are in that situation.

And that's something we've been in that situation since the 2018 trade war.

And really, when we're talking about that, we're looking at Brazil, sometimes Argentina beans and yes, beans especially.

And so when we're talking about Arkansas in the export market to China, China is the big kicker here.

You know, we're talking about the competition for soybeans between us, Brazil and Argentina.

And since the 2018 trade war, China just said, well, we'll shift our will shift our purchases to Brazil.

They're cheaper anyway, and we have a better relationship on paper with them.

So we're going to start purchasing more from them.

And, you know, I think we were about 12.4 billion in 2017 selling our the amount that we sold of soybeans to China.

And as soon as that trade war hit that dropped to 3.1 billion in 2018, it's $10 billion.

You know, I mean, that's a significant decrease.

And that was and then who who filled that gap was Brazil.

And since then, you know, thinking about it from just a purely business perspective, the incentive for China to to to trade with us is is diminishing from that perspective.

And with the introduction of new tariffs that could serve to even push that the other way as well.

The matter of tariffs and trade or tariffs aside in the way there are other federal programs over which a huge question mark hovers right now, direct payments to farmers, other assistance program.

Absolutely.

And that well, one one good light at the end of the tunnel is that that economic assistance payment to farmers is coming out.

They were given a deadline of March 20th to at least release the funds.

They were two days early on that so farmers can go sign up for that now.

And we did a little report, if anybody's interested on on what that kind of looks like for Arkansas.

Another thing and you mentioned is the USAID kind of question mark, and that's a big question mark for us, specifically for Rice.

And so USAID buys a lot of rice from us.

You know, we're looking in in the billions.

Right.

And the whole point of doing that is to kind of give a hypothetical, you know, market a taste of what we can offer.

You know, there's many reasons, but that's one of them and kind of like a free sample at a grocery store.

You taste it and you like it.

I want to buy more.

Well, now we've got a new export market, so we're building those relationships politically, too, right?

We want to help the people the best we can and feed them.

And so Arkansas plays a big part in that when we're talking about those rice exports with a big question mark.

They're really the the kind of the the summary of that is we're losing one more export market.

And then you add that on top of the tariffs, we've lost more as well.

And when you're at when you're export heavy in the agriculture commodities, it's very important.

Well, this is an export question that has been around for decades.

And every year there's new talk, always try to bring those.

There's always new talk about export to Cuba and it never happens.

That's right.

I mean, there it's it's an enormous market for rice It is it is an and for poultry and other things.

Absolutely.

And one of the things that, you know, we especially was specifically talking rice and talking Cuba.

Right.

One of the things we'd have to think about when going into that market specifically for rice is do they demand the rice that we provide?

And so that's been some of the things, too, saying maybe they have a certain quality metric that they have to hit and so maybe they source it from elsewhere.

They just grow it themselves.

And so, you know, for example, if we're talking China, we don't we don't send a lot of rice to China because we don't have the rice that they prefer.

So other countries come in to fill that gap.

And especially on the right side, when you're talking about India, India's, it's kind of a quickest race to the bottom when we're talking about the world price of rice right now because of that abundance of supply.

Yeah.

And that really is kind of the moral of the of the topic here is looking at this and saying we can talk about all of of what could happen and what will happen.

But the real the real concern is an abundance of supply that will push prices extremely down, even even further down than they have been the last few years and paying the same production costs.

You know, that that's an unsustainable.

And here we are three months into the year and no farm bill.

No, sir.

And it looks like September.

It did get extended by September, September of 20, 25 is what the 2018 Farm bill, which is really just a rehashing of the 2014 farm bill.

They have until, you know, September is when it expires.

And that was included in the continuing resolution that President Biden had signed in November or December.

Excuse me.

Yeah.

And so, again, if we're if we're looking at that and, you know, it's kind of uncertain from that perspective of exactly, you know, how that will go.

Yeah.

Looking internally at the changes, the personnel changes, the reductions in federal workforce and the incoming administration is certainly determined to do right.

What impact is that likely to have or do we know into the AG Department itself and its program?

Absolutely.

And so, you know, I think the the overall answer is, is it kind of will depend on how it will work.

And it's uncertain right now how that will play out.

But if I could give an example, you know, if you know Sears, for example, you know, you can as a farmer, you can go get a loan to to maybe zero grade your land, for example.

Well, if they don't have the workforce to help, you know, go through those processes, the loan process and all that, the applications and everything well know, it's kind of kicking the can down the road and doesn't make it more efficient.

So that there therein lies something that could happen hypothetically with a reduction in the workforce.

Well, a different kind of workforce.

That's farm labor and that's up in the air.

That's also up in the air.

The H-2A program is we rely on that very heavily and again, you know, it's just we're not alone.

I mean, that's right.

American ag Defense.

That's right.

American AG heavily depends on that H-2A program.

And it's a good program.

And, you know, sometimes there's red tape involved that, you know, sometimes gets in the way.

But again, with the big question mark of, you know, President Biden had signed that basically that proposal to say, hey, we're going to help support, you know, you housing the workers and supporting them.

But without that kind of help and support, there's another large expense for a farmer to pay every year.

And again in a year where you're where your it's tough to stay in the black.

That's tough, right?

Yeah.

Thanks for coming in.

Check back with you in a couple of months.

Sounds great.

Sounds great.

Thank you so much.

All right.

Fine.

Doctor Ryan Loy from the US AG Division, thanks very much for coming in.

Thank you.

And we'll be right back.

Glad we are back.

Another day, another round of tariffs and layoffs and budget cuts, many of them with a profound impact on Arkansas.

Assuming that those tariffs and layoffs and budget cuts are not reversed, along with that, some national security disputes that demand the attention of Arkansas congressional delegation, a couple or three of its members in particular.

We are joined now by the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.

That's Washington correspondent Alex Thomas.

Welcome back aboard.

Alex, how are you doing?

Well, Steve, how about yourself?

Well, okay, but it's early.

We it sounds like a law firm, Cotton, Crawford and Hill.

But those are the three members of our six member delegation who had an active hand in, in the matter of the Atlantic disclosures.

What do we make of that?

Absolutely.

So Senator Cotton chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Representative Crawford chairs the House Intel Committee, and Representative Hill serves on the House Intel Committee as well.

So this week, on Tuesday, the Senate Intel Committee met with national security intelligence leaders to discuss their big assessment on security threats.

However, much of that discussion involved, like you mentioned, the Atlantic reporting and Jeffrey Goldberg's inclusion in that conversation, Senator Clinton focused much on those conversations, on those chat remarks during that hearing.

But when you talk to reporters on Wednesday, he said he wasn't too concerned that classified information was mentioned in there, instead drawing attention to the fact that the Trump administration orchestrated that attack on Yemen, on those rebel forces that are backed by Iran.

On Wednesday's hearing with the House Intelligence Committee, the same panel that appeared before the Senate the day prior, Representative Hill actually asked CIA Director John Ratcliffe if those conversations had classified information.

Ratcliffe said no.

But like the Senate hearing the day before, a lot of the hearing on Wednesday involved the conversations that were in that chat involved The Atlantic's reporting.

So this issue not going away from any of the members of either chamber.

Well, yeah, where do we go from here?

Do we know where this particularly with reference to Chairman Cotton and Chairman Crawford?

Well, with them, they really do not.

Well, we'll focus on Senator Cotton first with Senator Cotton.

He does not believe that classified information was discussed in that chat on signal with Representative Crawford.

He mentioned it at the start of the hearing.

He believed that Tulsi Gabbard, who leads the Office of National Intelligence, he believes that her explanation about what happened was satisfactory.

He did not bring it up much during the rest of that hearing on Wednesday.

But at the same time, something to keep our eyes on is what the Senate Armed Services Committee may do.

So the ranking member who is Jack Reed of Rhode Island and the chairman who is Roger Wicker of Mississippi, they sent a letter asking for a review into what happened.

And it is important to mention that Senator Cotton serves on the Senate Armed Services Committee as well.

Well, does it put those three, particularly those that Well, this is a gift, obviously, to congressional Democrats.

Does it put the Republican majority in both chambers, particularly those Arkansas delegates?

Does it kind of put them on the spot, does it not?

Well, I think with any national security or intelligence matter, it's going to put a spotlight on what Senator Cotton, Representative Crawford say, because they are some of the most important people in the country, not just on Capitol Hill, but in the country when it comes to intelligence matters.

So we have to keep track of what they're going to say and what that armed services work will result in if that does end up resulting in something that we may not know now or what we may learn down the road from further reporting either from the Atlantic or some other news organization.

So it's important to keep our eyes on Senator Cotton and Representative Crawford as this story continues to develop and it's just snowballing and snowballing as this week has gone on.

Yeah, you do.

From your perspective, do you see any resignations at this point?

I think that Senator Cotton has faith in what the intelligence community has done so far is spoke highly of the current group that has appeared before senators and House members and currently are part of the Trump administration.

And Representative Crawford didn't share much discussed during Wednesday's hearing.

So from the Arkansas legislative perspective, I'm not seeing them calling for any resignations at this time.

But at the same time, we may learn something down the road that changes this whole picture.

Yeah, One final question along those lines.

And it would it would just appear from 1500 miles away or a thousand miles away that Mr. Hill, who sits for the second District of Arkansas, seemed to have some very pointed questions, are very obvious concerns anyway, about the situation.

Right.

He really wanted some clarity from John Ratcliffe on the conversation itself.

And keep in mind, Steve, John Ratcliffe admitted to the Senate that he was part of the conversation.

Every other person who was part of that conversation, you know, they were a little bit iffy.

They didn't necessarily want to talk about it.

But John Ratcliffe was the first person on Tuesday before senators who straight up said, Yep, I was part of the conversation.

I was in that chat and of course it was a very contested hearing on Tuesday, not as much on Wednesday.

But at the same time, House Democrats, much like their Senate colleagues, upset about that Atlantic reporting of onto the terror question.

And if this is Friday, then it means tomorrow is Saturday.

And that's the tariffs that were announced on Friday.

Maybe rescinded to some extent on Saturday, along with something along with some dismissals or some buyouts, whatever.

Is there any way to keep track of this situation?

That's what I ask myself every single day when I walk into the Capitol.

What has changed from the day before, or even what has changed from the morning?

I woke up and got to the gym that day because so much goes on and so much has changed where we're going to put tariffs on this day, Oh, wait, we're going to rescind that timeline.

We're going to move that timeline.

We're going to rescind some tariffs for certain things.

But keep in mind, tariffs are not a punishment on the country.

They're usually a punishment on the consumer.

So companies, when they have to pay tariffs, are going to pass those costs along to people, whether that's cars or other kind of goods, They end up having to pay more because that's what tariffs are.

They're essentially a tax.

So there are some positive feelings about some of these tariffs.

We talked to Senator Cotton and Representative Crawford when the Trump administration announced those tariffs on aluminum and steel, and they favored them, They said that they protect American steel.

They feel that the Mexican and Canadian markets have just been flooded with imports from other countries that have ruined domestic production.

And they really feel like those tariffs are in place to protect American goods.

But with these other tariffs, there's going to be costs.

We saw in one Senate, agriculture Committee hearing where egg producers were concerned about tariffs because they ended up closing markets and a lot of producers had to find other places, other countries, to ship their goods to.

Well, I was going to buy my wife a Bentley for her birthday and I'm having second thoughts about it, 25% more.

But actually, it's the it's the import, not just so much the imported autos, but the auto parts that I can tell you from my reporting here have really raised eyebrows among in the Arkansas automobile sector.

Yes.

And like I said, you know, there's a lot of eyes on what may happen with agriculture.

You know, April six or April 2nd, rather, is supposed to be this big day where these tariffs are going to come down to, as the Trump administration has put it, and I'm not quoting them directly here, but to protect American interest.

But again, what's that going to do to farmers, producers, car manufacturers who ship goods to other countries?

Because tariffs are not just a one way street.

If you're in to put a tariff on one country, that country will react.

For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

We learned that in middle school science, or at least I did.

So it's going to be interesting seeing what happens with other countries and how the economic ripples are going to be felt not just in Arkansas but across the world.

Yeah, And in fact, as we go to press here, so to speak, the embassy in Japan or the Japanese government, Tokyo, I guess, was announcing that it is considering exactly how to response.

Some kind of response would seem foreordained.

Absolutely.

And keep in mind, while there are foreign car companies, Toyota, BMW, they have operations in the United States, whether that's in South Carolina or Arkansas or West Virginia.

I mean, cars that have foreign branding on it have operations here in the U.S. when it comes to parts or cars themselves.

So it's not just one operation at one shop.

It's many operations in many different parts of the world that end up being placed in those cars in your driveway.

Back to AG, if we can, for just a second.

Any progress to report on the farm Bill?

Farm bills are challenging, Steve, as you can tell, because they're supposed to pass this farm bill back in September 2023.

I do want people to keep something in mind, though, and we did some reporting on this in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette last weekend is what may happen to conservation funding.

So with the Inflation Reduction Act, the Biden administration set aside $18 billion extra for conservation programs, specifically for Agriculture Arkansas over the next five years, if nothing changes, will be the second biggest recipient of those funds.

The first is Texas.

Now, if these budget talks go through and they decide to change that funding, how is that going to affect production in Arkansas?

Plus, you have to keep in mind that congressional Republicans are not favoring that funding in the first place.

They really don't feel that that funding is a great long term investment.

So they want to try to stretch those funds out over a longer period of time.

But what that looks like, that's the challenging part.

They're going to have to get a bipartisan farm bill done at some point.

But that was one of the real hang ups over the last two years when they tried to pass a farm bill over the last Congress.

Well, you're in touch with Chairman Bozeman, a Bozeman of Arkansas, who is chair of the AG Committee.

Can you share as he shared any of his thinking with you?

Can you give us some what's his reaction to all this?

Where does he think the situation stands?

Right.

So with the farm bill, he's always touted bipartisanship.

The fact that the agriculture committees, both of them both in the House, they work well together, members work well together on each committee.

But of course, the biggest problems right now are how are we going to tackle nutrition funding and how are we going to tackle that conservation funding?

So I asked his office about the conversation, the conversation or conservation funding, rather, and his office said, Look, we're worried about that conservation cliff that's coming up when the funding expires in the fall of 2031.

We need to find a way to stretch that money out, make sure we're doing great long term investments.

That way, when that conservation cliff happens, farmers aren't ended up, you know, with the short end of the stick.

Obviously, there is a lot of questions regarding what the farm bill is going to do.

But every member, both Republicans and Democrats, Senator Bozeman, is colleagues, agree that a farm bill needs to happen this year.

It's been two years since they were supposed to pass that farm bill and farmers across the country, Steve, are struggling.

Well, that too.

And it's every member of Congress, 535 has a stake at one level or another on that farm bill, too.

And that includes, you know, Manhattan, Los Angeles, Chicago.

I mean, keep in mind, the farm bill is called the farm bill, but in reality, it's a nutrition bill.

Much of the funding that goes in the farm bill goes to snap what we call commonly as food stamps.

When it comes to these budget talks, there's concerns about what's going to happen to those food stamps.

Are we going to see less funding for SNAP?

But at the same time, with the farm bill, there's a lot of eyes on making sure nutrition funding is protected, that people get the right kind of help they need.

But what that looks like and what we're going to see with a final farm bill, that's yet to be determined.

Okay.

On the diplomatic front, we Arkansas has not one but two ambassadorial candidates nominees.

One of them had a hearing this past week.

That's right.

Former Governor Mike Huckabee appeared before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Donald Trump nominated him last November as the ambassador to Israel.

That was informal at the time because he wasn't get an office, but at the same time he put his name out there.

So we've known this hearing's been coming for some time.

He finally appeared before senators on Tuesday.

And Mike Huckabee has been a staunch supporter of Israel.

He's been a staunch supporter of Israel in its conflict with Hamas, as well as the ongoing discussion regarding Israel and Palestinian rights.

But the one thing that the governor focused on in that hearing more than anything else was he was going to be a representative of the Trump administration more than anything else.

He put his own views aside and said, look, if Donald Trump wants something, he says that we need to do something.

That's what my position is going to be.

There's there were some protests on Tuesday, especially because the Israeli-Palestinian issue is such a hot topic.

Obviously, those protests, you know, are very coming at a time where, you know, the Israeli Hamas war is still ongoing right now.

But at the same time, this is a very contested position that Mike Huckabee is walking into.

And he understood that 100% during his hearing an appearance before senators.

So it's going to be interesting to see what happens when he does appear before the full Senate as a vote.

But I think when you look in the margins, it favors him being confirmed as the next ambassador.

Yeah.

What about the court of St James, though?

We've got Mr. Stevens who's nominations pending.

That's right.

So we haven't heard any new details on when that hearing will happen.

It will definitely not be as contentious as the Mike Huckabee hearing because it's a different office.

But at the same time, we're still waiting on when Senate Foreign Relations, they'll schedule that hearing.

Our eyes and ears are on that and will, of course, be in the hearing room when that hearing does happen.

All right.

Got to end it there, Alex, because we're simply out of time.

As always, we thank you for your reporting.

Yes, sir.

Thank you.

All right.

Come back soon and you will.

That does it for us for this week.

As always, thanks for watching and see you next week.

Support for Arkansas Week provided by the Arkansas Democrat Gazette, The Arkansas Times and Little Rock Public Radio.