Financial support for Arkansas Week provided by the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.

The Arkansas Times, and Little Rock Public Radio under.

Welcome to Arkansas week I'm Michael helpline.

The federal government remains closed, at least as we record this program.

And a week and a half into the shutdown, neither side seems willing to budge.

Bills backed by Republicans and Democrats have again failed to pass.

In recent weeks, we've talked with members of our congressional delegation.

This week, we'll focus on how the shutdown is impacting Arkansas and its top industry agriculture.

Joining me are Hunter Byrum, extension, agricultural economist with the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture, and Doctor Jeremy Hospital, director of the Arkansas Center for Research and Economics at the University of Central Arkansas.

Thank you both for coming in.

We've been talking for months about the precarious situation farmers are in.

We were possibly expecting and then out spent on Tuesday, some kind of, assistance from the Trump administration.

But, Hunter, that was delayed by the government shutdown.

What do we know at this point about what's been planned?

Well, frankly, I think the focus that I have is on the money that's being withheld from farmers at a time when, the economics just aren't working out for farmers.

I mean, we're looking at probably close to $180 million worth of, government assistance that has been triggered from 2020 for losses that should have already been paid by now.

But because of the government shutdown, farmers are still being, held out from that money.

And this is primarily to, help crops, that were, really impacted by the, trade disputes.

Soybeans, for example.

Right.

So and that that's a totally different, funding source.

And so what I'm talking about is, you know, there was the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program or the Icap, there was a supplemental disaster relief program or S-Corp, and then just your typical market based farm safety nets.

Those were those three different pots, of assistance.

And so those are being delayed right now.

But as you mentioned, yes, there's there's $13 billion worth that's been hinted by USDA that was set to be announced on Tuesday, hopefully to be delivered by now.

But with the shutdown that's holding up even more funds for Arkansas farmers.

Yeah.

Well, maybe expand a little these, what you're, talking about at first start, standard, funds that are made available to farmers talk about the, the ways that, this money is, being impacted by the shutdown.

Right.

So because the the what you say the first three programs, these programs, the losses were triggered in 2024.

And so with those losses being triggered 2024, the money is not disbursed until 2025 or October 1st, 2025 to be exact.

And so what happened on on October 1st, 2025?

We had the shutdown.

So again, that's holding up about $180 million worth of funds.

If you were to break this down by program, you're looking at with your market based saving, that maybe around $30 million, if you're looking at the, Mercy Commodity Assistance Program, probably another 30 million.

And then you're looking at the scrap program about $100 million, there.

And those were already authorized.

Those payments were already triggered.

And, that separate from the trade assistance and that trade assistance is being authorized through, what's called section 32, which pretty much allows USDA to use, funds that were, revenue that's been generated by tariffs to, support commodities that have been impacted by those tariffs.

Right.

And on that program, we're hearing maybe, about $13 billion is being considered.

Yeah, about $13 billion.

That's less than I heard at least.

To put that into perspective, farmers received about $10 billion worth under the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program, last year.

Yeah.

Jeremy, obviously this is just, short term fix.

Will this really get at the the root of the problem here in terms of the, tariffs and the trade disputes and, the bigger picture.

Right?

Well, as we just mentioned here, you know, what's going on is the tariffs are causing pain for the farmers, and we're going to help them out with the tariffs revenue.

So it seems like trying to put a Band-Aid on the problem that where really the tariffs will continue for many these markets not only to cause higher prices for inputs but also breaking down trade with other nations.

That's taken in some cases years to develop, with certain markets.

So I think that looking at that broader picture, we kind of have compounding of problems here with both the tariffs causing problems and then the shutdown not allowing the payments to come out.

But I think that it points to this more fundamental issue that, the tariffs will probably protect certain industries, steel production, things like that.

But even there some of their inputs are going to go up.

But certainly for agriculture, it's going to continue to be costly for them.

The longer that, these tariffs continue both again, the direct impact on them as well as retaliation from other countries.

Yeah.

And China is, a big example.

About 50% of U.S.

soybeans, went to China, this year.

That's zero.

And, China has been working with, Argentina and Brazil, to talk a little more about.

Yeah.

When we disrupt these, trade partnership that had been, years in the making, what that, does and how we perhaps move forward.

Yeah.

I mean, we can we can hypothesize about what this will cause, but we can actually look back to the reality of the first Trump term when there was retaliation for a smaller set of tariffs, in which case soybeans here were also affected.

And a lot of Hunter can sell more of the details.

But a lot of, as I understand, a lot of the, trade that we'd had China buying a lot of our soybeans, lot that shifted other places like South Korea and, and those relationships haven't been able to been rebuilt since then.

So now it's on an even larger scale.

So I think that as we look to the future, trade going to other countries and not not returning whether the tariffs stick or go away, I think that's a that's a real possibility.

Yeah.

Hunter.

Yeah.

We saw in the first, the first trade war and back in 2018, I mean, if you're just to look at the share of soybean exports, from the US versus Brazil that were going to China, there's a vast shift from China buying more from South America, more from Brazil.

And that's been the case ever since, you know, China has diverted resources to help build up the Brazilian infrastructure to be able to get the crop from the field to the poor, to be able to be exported to China.

They're making significant investments there.

And now Argentina actually has a relatively new development in.

And so what's also going on with China is China had enough carryover, enough soybean stocks on hand almost to be able to make it through the window where we would normally export.

So they already so they already had enough on hand, nearly enough on hand.

So they weren't going to need our soybeans anyway.

But especially now that Argentina has entered the picture and China is making those purchases in Argentina.

I'm very concerned that we're ever going to sell, any soybeans, especially in the window that we would normally sell the most, which is about the September to December, because in January, that's when the Brazilian crop begins to come online.

And where does that leave, Arkansas growers right now?

Well, not in a good place.

I mean, that's our number one crop in terms of acreage and revenue.

And other people talking about rice and rice is very important.

Don't get me wrong, because we produce the most in the country.

But swimming is actually our number one industry.

I think, you know, you're looking at around 3 million acres.

And, it's a multibillion dollar, industry.

And, at a time when returns this year, already looking at about $100 per acre.

And that's just operating expense.

So it doesn't paint a good picture for Arkansas farmers who who rely more heavily on those export markets.

Yeah.

Where are we in the harvest right now?

And, farmers looking ahead to next year, we we've been hearing the figure of, maybe, a third of, Arkansas growers might shut down after this season.

So I'm sure, there have been conversations with lenders and, trying to figure out how to, move forward.

What what describe the scenario at this point.

Yeah.

So, as I visit with, agricultural lenders, those that are with farm credit system and those that are outside of the farm credit system, I mean, that's that's a pretty consistent number.

I've heard anywhere from 25%, even upwards of 40% of the book of business, you know, going out of, going out of business.

And, I mean, that's a third of farmers and that's that's a pretty significant number.

And I mean, a lot of it is because they're not farmers aren't going to be able to pay their bills.

I'll tell you another group that I'm concerned about, and I'm sure that they're feeling this too, is input suppliers who offer, credit lines to farmers to get their, fertilizer and seed and so on.

Those are, collateralized loans.

And so if I'm looking at input suppliers and if I'm an input supplier, I'm pretty concerned about staying in business myself because I've got this un collateralized loan.

There's nothing pledged against that loan that the farmer took out to get there.

Inputs for production.

And, you know, farm credit, the ag lender is going to get their share first of if there's anything that goes to the ag lender and then the input suppliers left wondering, how am I going to generate any revenue to stay in business?

Yeah.

And Jeremy, obviously this impacts, the overall economy.

Yeah.

I mean, we can point to lots of industries in both large and small ways that will be affected by by both the shutdown of the tariffs.

But I think, you know, the bigger picture is I think about as an economist, is a lot of the data we get to understand how the economy is doing is also produced by the federal government.

And we're not getting that data right now.

Right.

Big numbers, like numbers that come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, like unemployment and consumer prices, data on the gross domestic product, which comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, as well as stuff from lots of agencies like the USDA.

USDA produces a lot of data.

So both as we sit here and try to talk about what's going on with the economy, without the data, it's very hard to talk about, but not only to talk about when you think about the Federal Reserve and trying to make decisions about interest rates.

A lot of the data they use is from government, federal government sources.

So I think the kind of question of where is the economy at and how should policymakers respond without any new data coming out, at least for the time being?

We're kind of flying blind almost as far as what policy should be.

The Federal Reserve has another meeting coming up, the end of this month.

If this shutdown continues, they may not have some of the key data to know our jobs growing or are they shrinking?

Is consumer price inflation about the same or has it ticked up a little bit?

They're not going to have that information and therefore they'll have trouble.

They can look to other sources.

Of course it's not the only source, but they're going to have trouble making a fully informed decision about what to do with things like interest rates.

Yeah.

Jeremy.

I'm sorry.

Hunter, your office released, new analysis this week showing Arkansas farmers losing big in several key commodities.

Tell me about these findings.

Well, they're not pretty.

They're not pretty at all.

Actually, there's a lot of red.

So, I mean, if you're looking at by commodity, you're looking at, you know, losses anywhere from, like I said, I think -85 to be more exact as what we're projecting will be the per acre loss for soybeans.

But, you know, all the way up to, I think, negative, well over $400 or thereabouts for cotton.

And so that's and then that that's again operating expense.

I mean, this is just to produce the crop and just to harvest the crop, you know, any kind of land expense, that's not factored in, in terms of ownership rental is is what we assume there because most of our farmers rent.

But, we're also not factoring in things like depreciation and those non-cash.

There's non-cash expenses.

Equipment expense isn't factored in there.

So again, just to produce the crop, we're seeing these losses.

And, you know, you're an economist and, you understand, like if you can't cover your variable costs, that's a shutdown point, right?

You know, yeah, that's what we teach.

That's the shutdown point.

But when, when when we're talking about food, do you really want to shut down food.

Do you want to shut down the production of that food?

Because, I mean, listen, at the end of the day, like we've got the most affordable food in the world.

I mean, we spend the least amount of our disposable income in the US on food.

And so is it, is it a good option?

Is it a good, option for the farmer to shut down?

Maybe in some cases, but not all cases, because we need to continue to have this affordable food.

Yeah.

And another, report, you coauthored with, some of your colleagues at the Division of Agriculture, the state of the Arkansas crop economy in 2025.

How would you summarize?

So what are the are the trends, as bleak as everything else in this very bleak.

I will say that, you know, overall, we're looking at losses of about $1 billion a little bit more across our crops.

That's going to be independent of the livestock sector, but it's our crop.

So again, rice, corn, soybeans.

Think about your winter wheat, cotton.

We even throw peanuts in there as well.

So all of our major, row crop commodities are looking at, losses.

Peanuts are kind of of a special case.

But for the most part, most of the acreage that that we grow will be devoted to those other crops.

And that's going to total up to a little over $1 billion decline in net income.

So that's going to be revenues, net of expenses.

And Jeremy, maybe we'll give you the last word a little over a minute here, but, what do you think?

Any, closing thoughts?

Well, I think the the early data we had for the quarter that just ended, just end at the end of September, third quarter of the year was actually looking pretty good.

GDP looked like it was growing strong.

Prices were holding steady.

But what's the effect of both the shutdown as well as new tariffs coming online?

Unfortunately now we don't know as we get into the fourth quarter of the year.

So I think that the economy for 2025 so far had looked pretty good.

Even with the impact of the tariff on some industries.

But I think that now is a question of what will it look like going forward.

And I think recession now looking more likely than it did before, especially if this shutdown continues for a significant part of time.

Doctor Jeremy Herr, pedal Hunter Byram, thank you both for coming in.

Thank you, thank you, thank you.

And we'll be right back.

And welcome back.

We don't normally discuss the inner workings of Arkansas PBS on this program, but we've got a new leader.

And his arrival comes at a time of great uncertainty for public broadcasting.

Federal funding, which had been in place for nearly six decades, recently ended last month.

Joining me to share his thoughts on this point as he begins this new position is Carlton Wing, executive director and CEO of Arkansas PBS.

Welcome.

Thank you.

It's great to be here.

Very good.

I know our viewers are very interested in learning more about you.

Some may be familiar with you from your time in the legislature.

You also, worked in, broadcasting.

But before we delve into your background, tell me how you're approaching this new position here.

Well, it's an exciting time.

A lot of times when you look at challenges, some it depends on what you focus on.

We focus on the opportunity.

There's.

This is an immense opportunity for public broadcasting here in the state of Arkansas as well as nationally.

And so that's one of the things that intrigued me most about being interested in this position, was the challenge that's ahead and the opportunities to do things and to boldly go where no public television station has gone before.

We have some great opportunities to tell some amazing Arkansas stories.

And as we navigate an uncertain landscape, we're going to need that kind of a vision.

And that's something that we have started collectively building.

Just here in my second week here, we're meeting with everybody on staff and and hearing their vision of what we can become.

Yeah.

You mentioned.

Yeah.

You haven't even been on the job, for two weeks now, but, you came in to, full staff meeting.

Meeting with the entire staff, and, very honestly talked about your feelings, took questions at that point, and then took a selfie at the end of the meeting with yourself and the full staff, behind you.

So you're coming into this position in a rather public way.

It was exciting.

And I loved, being able to have the first thing that we did.

I mean, literally, the.

I walked through the door straight into the studio where the staff was gathered, and the first thing that we did was we talked about who I am, why we're here and where we're going.

And and I think that's important because the entire staff here has a variety of talents that are spread out amongst us all, and the answers to where we need to go lie within this group.

Yeah.

Let's talk about your background here.

A native of North Little Rock.

Started your broadcast career, at the age of 17.

Working in radio.

Tell me what kind of helped mold you into the person you are today from growing up in North Little Rock?

And maybe what inspired you to pursue a career in broadcasting?

Well, I grew up with with the old stations.

Back then, you had you had four stations on the air.

And and I grew up watching some of the newscast, I was a big fan of, Walter Cronkite when I was a little kid.

And, then my first broadcast opportunity was at CEC, the easy listening radio station.

That was the we call it elevator music.

And I would, deejay dances around central Arkansas.

And then I would work the midnight to 7:00 am shift Saturday night, Friday night and Saturday night, there with elevator music.

So that was the first test of your ability to stay awake and stay focused.

If you can do that, you can do a lot of things.

Yeah.

Well, you ended up moving into television.

Into sports.

Served as, sports director at one of the stations in little Rock.

Then moved around the country, a little bit.

What were you pursuing as you were going to different TV markets?

As a kid, I grew up watching news, and I was fascinated by news, weather and sports.

I ended up gravitating towards sports because I just loved the competition angle and and the great life lessons that are taught in sports.

So I was a sportscaster.

Then I had the opportunity of a lifetime to jump into the professional bass fishing world.

National coverage of the professional bass fishing tour.

Then known as the FLW tour.

And that totally changed my life.

And in a in a fabulous way to be able to jump into that, into the outdoors.

And so I've been outdoors television since 2001, had the opportunity to start my own company in 2008, Wing Media Group.

And we have done multiple multiple series on outdoors, all different types of fishing and hunting and hiking and camping and all of that.

So a passionate love for the outdoors and for what we have here in Arkansas is amazing because we have things that hardly any other state has.

We are one of the rare states that has both an elk season and a Gator season.

And if you know anything about those two, animals, they live in very different climates.

To be able to have a state as small as ours, to have, both of those seasons gives you an idea of the breadth and depth of the outdoors that we enjoy here in Arkansas.

And do you envision bringing some of that to our airwaves?

Yes.

In fact, we gave a little acronym that we can share with our viewers, because if you go to the original charter of Arkansas Educational Television Commission, the, they wanted, education information, entertainment and inspiration were four key words there.

We're going to add outdoors to that mix.

And that gives an incredible acronym of E-i-e-i-o.

Old McDonald is going to lead us, down the path.

Yeah.

In 2015, you made a bid for the, state House of Representatives.

What inspired you to pursue public service at that point?

It's a great question.

I felt in 2015, when I had the opportunity to run for the house, that we could do politics in a better way.

And so while a lot of folks will have kind of their hot button issues as to what got them involved in the political arena, whether it's, you know, medical care, education, a variety of very important things that the government has to deal with.

I came in with an idea that we are more alike than we think we are.

And this was back in 2015.

I mean, think about, you know, where we are now in 2025, but we could do politics better.

We just needed to listen to each other and work together.

And then we find that that's how we can come up with the best solutions.

One of the people that I have, I have loved his writings, is a guy named Arthur Brooks, and he used to lead the American Enterprise Institute.

He's a professor at Harvard and has written a number of books.

But he he wrote a book called Love Your Enemies and another, that that really deals with the fact that we need to be talking more to each other, that, the political realities that we face are sometimes very intense and very important.

But if we can't discuss with each other the problems of the day, we can't expect to solve those problems.

And so that's what got me fired up about wanting to get involved in the legislature, to try to bring people together and over my five terms in the House of Representatives, that was one of my main goals, was to bring disparate parties together, whether whether it's parties with a capital P, the traditional political parties or just parties being various different people who have different ideas to come together for a common goal of of making Arkansas better.

And when we were able to do that, we were able to put together good legislation that has a lasting impact on the state of Arkansas.

Well, earlier this year, you announced you were not seeking reelection.

Why did you decide to, get out at that point?

It had been a ten year goal from the beginning.

My wife and I had decided that we were going to try to do the public service.

As long as we and the voters agreed that we would, we would go for ten years, with public service.

When you get to that point, that's when you decide, are we really going to follow through with this?

And so, having the incredible opportunity to have leadership positions within the House of Representatives to serve as the speaker pro tem, there was a temptation to think, well, do we want to keep going with this or not?

But we really felt like ten years was good.

Five terms to serve my, friends and neighbors in North Little Rock and Sherwood, was enough.

And so that's what we made our determination to stick with our original plan.

Well, Arkansas PBS is unique compared to a lot of other public television stations, and that was essentially part of a, state government.

So did this seem like a good fit for you, given the background in government and, with broadcasting to come here?

It certainly is, unique pedigree there to be able to blend almost 40 years of broadcasting experience in with ten years of legislative experience.

And, and and to recognize what public television does and what it means to the state of Arkansas.

There is a reason why money is allocated towards public television.

We have so many other entertainment options, television, possible.

But we are the only source that can get a signal out over the airwaves to the entire state of Arkansas.

And and that has very real implications and very real needs for all of our citizens, people who can't afford broadband or cable, they can get Arkansas Educational, a television network.

They can get us all over the state.

So there's a there's a reason for the existence of public television.

And having that background, in the legislature certainly does bring an element of expertise to that.

And as well as the combined, you know, storytelling of 40 years of broadcast experience, we have the ability to tell some amazing Arkansas stories on these airwaves.

Well, finally, less than a minute here, but, a lot of people, as I mentioned, are paying attention.

A lot of people are very passionate about this station.

What would you, tell them?

What are your final thoughts here?

Well, I tell you, one of the things that you can be very proud of is that this existing team, as I have gotten to know it, has incredible talent, incredible ability and a wonderful desire to tell the stories of Arkansas to you every day right here on these airwaves.

There is a lot to be inspired about and educated about in the state of Arkansas.

And, we intend to tell those stories and stay tuned.

You're going to see some amazing things here on these airwaves.

Carlton Wing is the new executive director and CEO of Arkansas PBS.

I know we'll be seeing you more on the airwaves in the future.

Thank you.

And with that, I'm Michael Heflin, and we'll catch you next time for Arkansas Week.

Support for Arkansas Week, provided by the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, the Arkansas Times, and Little Rock public Radio.