Hello again, everybody, and welcome back to Arkansas Week for a new Year.

It is a new election year session of Congress.

That begins with a range of issues confronting Arkansas as six D.C.

delegates.

In a moment, we will check in with the Washington bureau chief, the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, that for an update on their agendas and the president's.

But we'll begin this edition a little closer to home with the statewide ballot.

Come November, it will see a governor seeking a second term, a US senator seeking a third, and some other races, of course.

And here they are, Republican stalwart Bill Vicary and Democratic strategist Michael Cook.

We did the best, but we couldn't keep them away anyway.

Guys, I know we have a all politics is now national, and it would seem in this election year that it is as national as just about as you can get.

Bill, you want to start.

Yeah.

Well, first of all, you're exactly right.

I mean, obviously over the last two decades, things have transformed up.

The agenda for both parties is set in DC and then and then goes downward.

I don't see any real problems here in the state for, for the Republican Party.

I think the Supermajorities hold in the state legislature, all the constitutional officers will win.

A couple of them don't even have challenges on the Democratic side of the attorney general, Tim Griffin, the, lieutenant Governor, Leslie Rutledge.

So I think it's again, it's a banner year for Republicans.

I do begin to worry, though, that and we you know, we used to complain about this on the Republican side, that when when you have sort of one party, the intramural fights become meaner and meaner as as time goes on.

And, I'd like to see the Republican Party, both on the national level and on the and the state level.

Coheres around, some core ideas.

So, yeah, Michael, you know, in terms of the national level, you know, obviously the effects in Arkansas in various different ways, but taking the bigger picture, Democrats are on the march nationally.

I think we'll take back the House, in 2026.

But crazy enough, I think the Senate just possibly might be in play.

Democrats are recruiting a good candidate in Alaska.

They'd have to run the table, but it is a possibility for the Senate.

But the bigger thing is the what in Maine?

Yes, Maine, of course.

But the bigger thing is people in Arkansas and nationally, they are just angry and frustrated about the cost of living.

Things are too high.

Health care is going through the roof.

My own health care has gone up 40% because of the big beautiful bill.

So people are feeling it, nationally.

And at the same time, Trump doesn't seem to care.

He's more worried about knocking down the East Wing or, regime change in Venezuela.

He's not worried about the price of everyday goods that the average Arkansan has to pay for the optics bill aren't the best.

Well, I'll say this, governing is like playing golf, and campaigning is like playing tennis.

You play against yourself when you play the sport of golf, you have no one else.

Is there, nothing to compare yourself to?

You can hit a great shot six inches off and it turns into a bad shot come campaign, campaign time, you're going to see a lot of that guy with a Mexican flag standing on top of that burning car in Los Angeles.

You're going to see a lot of the rioting.

You're going to see a lot of what is effectively lawless, a lot a lot of American cities.

This is the choice that America has.

Do you want to turn to these people, or do you want to turn to the people that are already in charge, that have done things and produced real results?

And so and on a foreign policy side and on the domestic policy side.

So, I look forward to a robust campaign in the fall, because the way the liberals have have taken over the Democratic Party and the core messaging that's coming out of there now is, is a net plus for a lot of Republicans, especially on the House side.

I wouldn't be so sure about the House falling.

I actually feel better about it now that you see where the races are really shaping up.

And the Senate is solid.

I do think Maine is an issue.

I completely agree.

Alaska's going to stay solid in the red column.

So, you know, we look forward to saying this is your choice.

And this is who, who the opposition.

I don't I don't think this is this is just work when you're when you're when you're when your own bills are going through the roof and you're having a hard time making ends meet, you can do the old playbook of images in the car.

If you want to talk images, we can we can talk about masked secret police shooting a woman in the face this week in Minneapolis.

That's a horrific image.

That is going to hurt, hurt the Trump and the Republicans.

Or at the same time, you know, regime change in Venezuela while at the same while at the same time we're talking about that Republicans were saying we're against regime change, we're against interventionism.

So they're having to tie themselves into pretzels of saying where we were against it, but now we're for it because of Trump.

But the bottom line is that's the people's own, the good old fashioned kitchen table issues.

Can you pay your bills?

What's the cost of health care?

How much does it cost to buy your groceries?

That is what this election is.

And that's what that is why people are angry that, in fact, I would say one last thing.

Trump's numbers on the economy nationally are where Bidens were at his lowest point.

That tells you the danger the Republicans are in.

And that's what people are going to be caring about this election bill.

The key word this season anyway, the key blue word any would be affordability.

And it seems to be working a little bit.

Well yeah I mean I mean look yes of course it works in New York City.

It works in areas that are intensely blue.

I will not deny that Republicans have lost a couple of road games in the off year, no doubt about it.

But I think to get back to Michael's point, I think yes, let's highlight Maduro in Venezuela.

Let's highlight Chuck Schumer's flip flops.

Let's highlight most of the Chris Coons flip flops in the United States Senate.

Let's highlight these foreign policy accomplishments.

And on the Arabian Peninsula and throughout Europe, let's highlight the fact that you've got a, a group of Republicans running in the House, in the Senate now against a group of folks that are more interested in in, the rights of, of gang members who've who came into this country illegally than they are in the rights of regular Americans.

I was proud to see, though, finally, with the capture Maduro and bringing him to the United States, you finally had a group of Democrats that were upset about a South American criminal making his way into the United States.

It was finally too great to see those guys come around on that one.

But in all that, not one word about affordability, not one word about cost of living.

Again, we can talk about all these things.

We can talk about Trump, you know, pardoning a drug, dealing Honduran former president.

But at the end of the day, you said nothing about the cost of living and what people are angry and frustrated about.

You know, we can talk about all these other countries.

But when I when my health care goes up 40%, I'm angry.

And of course I'm not.

I'm a clearly biased, participant in this conversation.

But the average Arkansan, the average American, when it's when it's tough to make ends meet.

And there Trump just doesn't care.

It's clear the president and the Republicans are doing nothing to lower the cost of living.

And that is killing them all in these special elections, all the elections in 2025 and in 2026, it's not going to get better for them.

There's not like there's going to be a big change for them.

Let me come out of this.

There has been much written lately about across the nation, not necessarily in Arkansas, but you can correct me on this.

Is there a a widening division in MAGA America?

I mean, we have a president now who says, you know, I don't want any of this foreign adventurism, etc.. So now we have Venezuela is moving on or threatening to move on Greenland and trashing NATO.

So do you see a schism developing?

I think the criticism of NATO is very valid.

There's no doubt about it.

I mean, the United States is NATO, and the fact that, we finally have a president who levels, a significant amount of legitimate criticism on an organization because shocker shockers, a bunch of lazy Europeans don't want to pay the tab.

I mean, that seems pretty simple to me.

Sound foreign policy, I think to to get to these sort of broader issues that you're talking about.

I do think, again, this is what happens when you have a party that governs, you've got these internal intramural fights occur in the off time, but they coalesce around one another when the election, when the election comes up.

And I do and I appreciate my Democratic friends caring so much, finally, about the economy or about some sort of issue, which they really just care about it because they're interested more in raising taxes so they can implement more programs.

The reality becomes this once we get to the fall, you'll have a clear choice.

You'll have a clear choice between a radical, ultra left wing, philosophy of government and and stay the course.

And it worked for Reagan in 82.

It worked for Bill Clinton.

It worked for Bill Clinton after he lost control of the Congress.

It worked for Bush.

As as he moved forward postwar.

So, I think this is, again, I appreciate Michael.

I appreciate the point, but I look forward to seeing what happens in November, because I think it's going to be a good year for Republicans.

Bill's making a point without saying the word.

Well, New York mayor, right?

Yeah.

But who's the most profile Democrat in America right now?

Is is that going to be the image?

Certainly.

Nobody could blame the Republicans for trying to make that the image, the Democratic Party.

For me, it's not about the New York City mayor.

For me, it's the the new governor of Virginia, the new governor of new Jersey.

Those two women, have, you know, former congresswoman, you know, national security credentials.

To me, those are the type of the future of the party, not somebody who wanted, an election in New York City.

But the key thing you asked about the the schism among Republicans, I think in 2026, you're going to see that grow larger because you had a large part of the Republican Party, number one, who are against any kind of concept of regime change or getting involved in foreign wars.

Well, Trump showed that he's willing to do that at the same time with the with the Jonathan Epstein files you had for years, Republicans calling for the release of all these files.

And now Trump and the Department of Justice are involved in a clear cover up of these files with releasing redacted documents.

What I'm saying is, as the economy gets worse as these these all these things in terms of the Epstein files and the the regime change that causes more of a rift in Republican parties.

And at the end of the day, this election is going to be about, as I keep saying, cost of living.

How much does it cost to pay your bills and who's looking out for you?

And it's clear the Republicans and Trump are just don't care.

They care about everything.

But making sure that you can you can pay your utilities, pay for your health care, or pay your groceries.

I would say this real quickly.

The redactions in the Epstein files, those are mostly blacking out the faces of the young girls at Clinton's in the hot tub with.

So let's be clear on the redactions.

The second side on this whole thing is we're about a week removed from the action in Venezuela.

We've seen no we've seen no real unrest.

You've seen, in essence, a smooth transition of power.

So when we talk about getting involved in foreign wars, there's a big difference between going out and taking that.

A bad guy that Democrats screamed about for a decade.

He had to be removed.

Need to go get him.

The the video of the Democrats during Trump's first term criticizing him for not acting in Venezuela.

Then he acts now suddenly we were going to get their oil back on online.

We've taken care of China in the hemisphere.

We've created a Monroe doctrine to a Trump doctrine.

All of those things I think are important as we move forward.

Can any of this work at the local level?

And I'm talking about the U.S.

Senate race here, Michael, the congressional races here, we've got, you know, a governor seeking reelection, right?

Any of that have any traction at all of kind of taking them in in various orders, the governor's race, you know, Democrats have two good people running for the nomination.

But sadly, I think whoever gets the nomination is just not going to be able to raise enough money to compete.

So, it's just not going to happen there.

The big thing, though, I think, is the US Senate race, Haley Shaffer will probably be the Democratic nominee, running against Tom cotton.

And that's a clear contrast.

You have.

Haley Schaffner, a farmer, comes from a long line of, farming, you know, farming for generations versus Harvard lawyer, McKinsey acolyte, DC swamp monster Tom cotton, who is just just as clearly have gotten out of touch with with Arkansas and all these tariffs that are really hurting Arkansas farmers so much that Trump and the Republicans have to do a bailout, to try to fix the problems that they created.

Now, again, I'm not don't misunderstand me.

I'm not saying this is, you know, that Haley software is going to win or it's going to be a very, very tough race.

But for me, a key title is that Cotton and Republicans are already sniping at her.

You know, usually when you run against somebody who you just going to beat, no matter what, you just ignore them.

But they're already starting to snipe at her.

To me, that's a bit of a tell that they are concerned because she's raising good cash.

She's raised close to $1 million.

That's going to be a fun race to watch.

Bill Vicary yeah, cotton is not running against a Democrat.

He's running against expectations.

How far north of 60 do you get?

So this is kind of an over under, for Tom cotton.

He wins easily.

Obviously, all the state constitutional officers win easily.

The Republican Supermajorities hold all members of the congressional delegation win easily and put things away.

So, I don't I think it's a ho hum year in terms of, competitive election cycles in, in Arkansas, all the, all the heats now in the primary on the Republican side, that's where races are.

Well, the Democrats though are have what an excess of 50 legislative candidates, I believe the House and Senate candidates.

Any traction there.

Well it's a mid year.

So there's a lamb and it's a sacrifice.

And we'll just leave it at that.

Well Michael, there's there's a possibility we could break the supermajority in the House, the Senate.

The numbers aren't there.

But in the House, we've got some good camps across the state that could.

You know, I think it was at 81.

We have to take back seven.

Something like that, give or take.

Don't quote me on the numbers, but in that range, in a bad economy with good candidates on the Democratic side going after Republicans about how they're giving tax cut to wealthy folks, while at the same time your health care costs are going up and it's part of pay your bills.

That's a tough that's a tough message to beat, in a, in a midterm election.

30s closing thought.

Yeah.

Again, I would just stick with the point here and say this.

It's interesting.

It will be interesting as the calendar shifts and we get into the summer and you start to see the races really take shape and where the vulnerable vulnerabilities lie.

One Republicans maintain everything here in Arkansas status quo holds no big deal.

Cotton wins north of 62 or 63 could get to 65.

State House Supermajorities remain the same nationally.

Republicans hold the Senate somewhat easily, and I predict either a razor thin margin for Republicans or a razor thin margin for Democrats one way or the other.

Well, that's more than 30.

But my one last thing look at the bottom line is history.

Trump is in his last midterm elections.

The incumbent president's party usually just gets crushed.

Nationally.

I don't think this time is going to be any different when it comes to the national scale.

Plus, with all these headwinds he's facing, I think history prevails.

Like it did in all previous elections.

Well, you two didn't embarrass yourselves too much, so we'll have you don't know.

We can try that.

Yeah, I'm actually red and blue.

All right.

Thanks.

Come back.

Thank you.

And we'll be right back in a moment.

And we are back with some Republican members more nervous than others.

This midterm, the Congress has returned from its year in break to confront issues involving farm foreign policy and health care.

Simple.

And with us now from the nation's capital, the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.

Alex Thomas.

Alex, thanks for coming aboard.

As always.

We've got to let's start with foreign policy, because, the rumor is we've we've extracted, the former president of Venezuela and, take it from there.

Our delegation seems to be pretty much on board with it.

Right.

Well, first of all, Steve, happy New Year.

Thanks for having me back on.

And when it comes to our delegation, the two people to talk about will be Senator Cotton and Representative Crawford.

Those guys lead the intelligence committees on Capitol Hill, and they're more privy to receiving intelligence information than their colleagues, not just in Arkansas, but across the campus here in D.C.

they were not informed of the Venezuela operation, and they're actually fine with it.

Senator cotton told me that because it was what they described as a conditions based operation where everything had to be just right.

He was understanding to the fact that lawmakers were not informed.

Representative Crawford sided a little bit with the Trump administration, who pushed back against informing lawmakers because of concerns.

The news would be leaked.

Representative Crawford saying, hey, he understands that there's people on Capitol Hill who would run to certain media outlets and say, hey, I disagree with this.

Guess what's going to happen?

And these guys, like I said, are the leading intelligence officials on Capitol Hill now.

Their Democratic counterparts don't feel the same way.

They feel that the Trump administration was overstepped its boundaries with this operation, and they want more answers.

And we're going to get those answers as the weeks progress.

There's already been closed door hearings on Capitol Hill, and those hearings are likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

Yeah, well, no one really seems to know other than Mr.

Trump himself, what he's going to do as opposed to what he says he's going to do.

But based on that, he's making noises about, well, of course, Greenland and and, Columbia and withdrawing the U.S.

from one or another international agreement.

How is the delegation with that?

Well, I think the big thing right now is making sure that what goes on in Venezuela makes sure that that stays in a good position right now.

So there is a, like you said, a lot of talk about Greenland and Colombia.

But at the same time, though, they are still a little bit cautious about how Venezuela's all going to play out.

There is some optimism with lawmakers, including representative French Hill, who serves on House Intel, citing what George H.W.

Bush did in Panama.

But at the same time, they're really cautious about saying, hey, this is what we should be doing, this is what we shouldn't be doing, because there's just so much in question regarding what America's needs are.

And of course, international relationships.

So it's just a wait and see attitude on their part.

Or is there any, any, any indication at all from any of them that they're going to insist on what have what the Constitution says anyway?

Are, are the executive or the legislative branches prerogatives?

I definitely think it's a wait and see kind of approach here.

And the reason for that is the United States has been involved in these conflicts before.

And our guys told me that because of how those have all gone down, whether it be Iraq and Afghanistan or Panama or Korea, every situation is very different.

And it's hard just to make a certain plan and fit it in every single continent and every single country.

So right now, it's very much a wait and see approach.

Finding out what Americans needs are, but also recognizing that the United States has relationships and interests throughout the world.

One thing that Representative Crawford told me in regards to the Venezuela operation was, and these are his words, we were a good house in a bad neighborhood.

And sometimes you have to protect your neighborhood, meaning the Western Hemisphere.

And that was his argument for why the Venezuela operation was necessary.

At the same time, though, does that argument apply to somewhere like Greenland?

No, because Greenland's not in central America or Latin America.

It's all the way over in Europe.

So definitely a wait and see approach.

And these questions are not going to be going away anytime soon.

All right.

Let's talk about foreign policy for a second or specifically anyway, the farm should I use the word bailout anyway.

And an emergency aid package for, for farmers?

Where do we stand on that?

Right.

So the Trump administration last month announced $12 billion for farmers, $11 billion in relief will go to road crop farmers.

When I spoke to Arkansas farmers and ag leaders back home about this, their reaction was, hey, that's great, we appreciate it.

But that's not going to be a cure all solution.

And we've seen this in recent history.

Steve, last year, Congress approved $10 billion in economic relief last year, meaning 2024.

And that was not a cure all situation.

We are in a situation now where farms across the country, especially in Arkansas, are facing financial pressures not just because of input cost and crop prices, but also the Trump administration's tariff wars.

So what's going to happen in the foreseeable future?

Well, the good news is that what we have with one big, beautiful bill, like Republicans, big, massive policy that they passed in the summer of last year, there are going to be changes to ag programs to make crop prices more reasonable to the current time.

The problem with that, though, is those changes do not take effect until the second half of this year.

So farmers are going to have to deal with a lot over the foreseeable months.

They're trying to navigate already tough waters.

And this isn't a Trump administration or Biden administration problem per se.

These are issues that have been building and building and building for years.

And now it's just at a point where a lot of farmers are beyond the breaking point.

They're realizing, oh, man, I should have sold my farm last year when things were better.

Right.

Okay.

Onto health care.

The last session of Congress, of course, ended without any decision on subsidies or any any renewal of subsidies.

And a lot of members are under a lot of pressure to do something about, the cost of health care, any movement there.

And where, where do our six guys stand?

Well, they don't favor the coronavirus era tariffs that the Biden administration and congressional Democrats put forward in 2021.

And were extended through last month.

They do not support continuing those.

But they also understand that health care costs are getting expensive for everybody.

They want to find a solution that really addresses helping those at the bottom more with health care expenses.

The big concern when I talked to someone like Senator John Boozman, who has experience in health care as a former optometrist, was that people who make six figure seven figures were able to find these subsidies and use them, and the people at the bottom were just continuing to struggle.

But at the same time, though, these are just ideas are being thrown out right now.

Representative Westerman has repeatedly introduced health care legislation, trying to address health care costs to make things more affordable.

But same time, that legislation has never gone anywhere.

He's admittedly said that he's put that out there just to generate the conversation.

But at the same time, the will we see a health care bill this year?

Maybe.

Maybe not.

The trick here, Steve, is math.

You can pass something in the House of Representatives with the simple majority, but you need 60 votes in the Senate, and that means you have to get Democrats on board.

And if they can't get 78 Democrats on board, but any health care push is going to be worth nothing.

Well, that that 60 but there's also a House Senate divide.

The government's out of money I think if the end of January.

Right.

So is there that there is at least the prospect anyway of of another shutdown.

How big a prospect, how real a prospect is that?

Well, the good news is the House and the Senate have a mini bus they're working through right now in a mini bus.

What it does is it continues government funding for most agencies for a certain period of time, a few months, but it also funds a limited number of agencies through the rest of the fiscal year.

So the goal is pass that many bus, help out with the government funding battles, and make that battle less and less stressful as the fiscal year continues.

But same time, though, this is not the way to run a ship, what we should have done is they should have passed all 12 spending bills in the fall of last year.

That didn't happen.

We saw the government shutdown happen and now is there a threat of government shutdown?

I would say so.

There always is.

But the threat of the government shutdown now seems to be subdued compared to what we saw last fall.

I'm not seeing as many angry Democrats on Capitol Hill as I did in September and October of last year.

So there is some good news that hopefully we don't have a shutdown at month's end.

But at the same time, I don't have a crystal ball in front of me and my odds are never good when I go to Vegas.

All right.

Alex Thomas in Washington, thanks so much for your time as always.

And come back soon.

Absolutely.

Thank you Steve.

Yeah.

Got to leave it there because we're simply out of time.

As always, we thank you for yours and see you next week.