(upbeat music) - Go Fish.

- Mom, there is no way she is not cheating.

- Hey everyone.

So they've been playing a heated game of Go Fish.

Harper keeps winning and I think Hayden and Halle are starting to maybe doubt the probability of her having such good luck.

Amazing Mathematicians, we are super excited to be with you this morning.

We are going to have so much fun today learning more about math and growing our brains.

And you all I think today we should spend some time investigating Harper's good luck at cards.

Does that sound like a plan?

- Yes.

(Susanna laughs) - Okay.

So there are some things in math that we know are true.

Like Hayden, what's six times seven?

- 42.

- Will six times seven ever be anything other than 42?

- No.

- You're 100% certain about that.

- Yes.

- I agree.

Some things in life, maybe most things in life, aren't so certain, though.

Think about a coin toss.

So we assume that whether this quarter lands on heads or tails is completely random, right?

- Yeah.

- Yeah.

- Yeah.

Halle, I'm going to toss the quarter and I want you to call it.

Okay.

One, two, three.

- Heads.

- Heads it is.

Okay, now you couldn't have predicted what the quarter was going to land on with 100% certainty, but you could make a guess because it's just as likely to land on heads as it is on tails.

I want us to talk about probability for a little bit today.

Okay you all?

Probability of something happening is a number.

It tells us how likely it is for something to happen.

Halle, when we tossed the quarter, how many possibilities were you considering before you made your guess?

- I was deciding between heads and tails.

- Okay.

So two possibilities.

And each side was equally likely, right?

- Right.

- Okay.

So the probability of the quarter landing on heads is one half.

The numerator one is the event that you hoped for.

Halle was hoping to flip heads.

The denominator is how many possibilities she had to consider.

And she had two, heads and tails.

So you could say that her probability was one out of two, one half, or you could even express it as the percentage 50%.

Okay.

So you all, let's talk about this Go Fish game.

Harper, how many cards in this game do you have to collect to have a book?

- Four.

- Okay, so Harper needs to have four of a card to collect a book.

Now, because there are four of each card in a deck of cards, like there are four Aces, there are four sevens, there are four Queens and there's 52 cards in the whole deck, what is the probability of Harper drawing an exact card?

Like a Queen.

If there's four Queens and 52 cards in the deck, the probability would be four out of 52.

Let's put that in the calculator.

Four divided by 52.

Ugh.

You all, that's not even an 8% chance for her.

Okay.

Do we want to think through one more example?

Let's do it.

Okay.

Think about rolling a dice.

Hayden, will you grab us a dice?

Perfect.

Hey Harper, how many sides does a dice have?

- 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

- Six sides.

Okay.

Halle, pick a number one through six.

- Five.

- Okay.

Good number.

What are the chances when Hayden rolls this dice, that it lands on the number Halle picked?

That it lands on a five?

Well, we're hoping for a five.

That's our numerator, the one event, and there's six possibilities.

So that's our denominator.

If we do one divided by six, there's about a 17% probability.

Okay.

Hayden, roll that dice.

What'd it land on?

- One.

- One.

Ugh.

Well, we knew the chances were slim.

Right?

- Right.

- Okay, you all, that is about all the time that we have for today.

Was this fun?

- [All] Yes.

- Okay.

So do you think that Harper has really good luck or do you think that the math explains her winning?

- I think she has really good luck.

- What do you think Harper?

Do you think you have really good luck at Go Fish, especially?

Halle, what do you think?

- Yeah, I guess.

- She does have some good luck.

Okay.

You all, thanks for joining us today.

And I hope that you have some fun today too.

Maybe go play a good game of Go Fish or play with some dice.

Just have a great day today.

And we will see you next time on Rise and Shine.

Let's tell everyone bye.

- [Children] Bye!

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